Stage 8 – Santa Pola > La Manga del Mar Menor (173.7km)

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Stage 7 Result

1st Michael Storer (16/1)

2nd Carlos Verona (150/1)

3rd Pavel Sivakov (100/1)

4th Sepp Kuss (25/1)

Stage 7 Bets

Michael Storer 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1 - 1st

Nick Schultz 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Andreas Kron 0.5pts each way (4 places) @28/1

Max Schachmann 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Jesus Herrada 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Chapeau! A frantic start with the break failing to settle until they’d crested the first climb. Team DSM animated the stage, getting four up the road, but it was Storer who was on a special day to frank his form from the Tour de l’Ain. The big group that got clear contained a couple of GC threats (Großschartner, Haig), so Jumbo–Visma had to keep it pegged at around 4mins and ultimately hung onto red by just 8secs.

Adam Yates again looked the liveliest amongst the GC men, putting in a few digs but failing to shake the main men. Sadly, we lost Carthy who has struggled the last few days, and then Valverde to a nasty crash, who abandoned in tears.

Stage 8 Preview

Another sprint day … or is it? Yes, probably. It’s flat but all along the coast with crosswinds a possibility so we could see splits and panic amongst GC teams. As a viewer, we want the wind to blow, but as far as predicting the outcome, we have to assume it’ll end in a bunch sprint. 

The timing of that sprint will be crucial as there’s a chicane a few hundred metres from the line, just before the final kicks will be launched. So a strong, well-organised leadout will be vital, favouring our main sprint teams Alpecin–Fenix, Groupama–FDJ, and Deceuninck–Quick-Step.

Contenders

As well as the stage win, it’s worth noting that there’s also a very close contest for the green jersey going on – a solitary point separates Jasper Philipsen (131pts) and Fabio Jakobsen (130pts) and so we’re likely to see a mini-battle at the intermediate sprint point 100km in. 

Jakobsen came from a little way back and took a circuitous route to finish behind Philipsen on stage 5 into Albacete. It does seem that pound for pound he’s the faster of the two, though positioning and luck play a big part in sprint outcomes.

The Dutchman was off the back early on stage 7 and crossed the line in the final group but crucially made the time cut. His Deceuninck–Quick-Step team are masters in the wind, and in fact more wind might play to his favour. He’s the favourite and short in price, but I think Jakobsen will win stage 8 and is the selection.   

Philipsen already has two wins and there’s no doubt he can add another here. Alpecin–Fenix have yet again punched above their weight at a Grand Tour (it’s easy to forget they’re a second-division outfit) and dominated the front on some run-ins. We can expect them to be there again come that final chicane.

We’ve had a bit of good and a lot of bad from Groupama–FDJ and that must be affecting the confidence of Arnaud Démare. If they get it right, Démare might have the speed to finish it off, but we haven’t seen much to suggest it so far. Despite the failures, his price doesn’t seem to get any bigger, so the 4/1 about him doesn’t appeal even on value. 

We’ve seen one of the three favourites miss out on a place in each of the three sprints so far, so if that trend continues someone else could sneak into the frame. On stage 5 that was Team DSM’s Alberto Dainese, and they’ll be upbeat after the super strong showing on stage 7 and Michael Storer’s stage win. The young Italian’s career appears to be on the upturn and is also worth a small interest at 20/1. 

If it does get messy in the crosswinds and the race splits apart, then who might be the fastest man left? UAE–Team Emirates’ Matteo Trentin put in an awesome man-of-the-match performance on stage 7 trying to get Jan Polanc into the red jersey. He might pay for that, but it also shows he’s on good form, and we’re likely to see more of the four-time Vuelta stage winner in this race.   

Stage 8 Bets

Fabio Jakobsen 3pts win @6/4

Alberto Dainese 0.5pts each way (3 places) @20/1

Posted 22.01 BST Fri 20th Aug 2021