Tour de France 2024

Stage 1 – Florence > Rimini (206km)

Sat 29th June | Scheduled start: 12:00 CET

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Where: Florence, of course – the first time the Tour de France has staged its Grand Départ in Italy. Stage 1 heads east to the Adriatic Coast.

Stage Type: Hilly – over 3,700m of climbing makes it a very tough opening to this year’s Tour.

Weather: Hot and dry

Climbs: A whopping seven categorized climbs including back-to-back second-category climbs of the Côte de Barbotto (5.8km at 7.6%) and Côte de San Leo (4.6km at 7.7%) which come in the final third of the race.

Start: Flattish for the first 30km or so before rising to the first classified climb of the day – the second-category Col de Valico Tre Faggi (12.5km at 5.1%) where, if it hasn’t already formed, the break could be triggered into being stronger than anticipated.  

Finish: Any of the final four climbs could be launchpads for attacks, however, the last ascent – the third-category Côte de San Marino (7.1km at 4.8%) – peaks 25km from the line so a solo win seems unlikely. Could be a chase for teams with any fast men left to bring back whoever’s out front towards the line.

Stage suits: Punchy, attacking climbers with good descending skills and a fast finish.

Breakaway chances: Low given that a yellow jersey is waiting at the end though the terrain may make it difficult to contain a strong group that gets away later in the race.

What will happen?: Could be complicated. Ordinarily, a small group of riders from some of the lesser teams would form the breakaway but the challenging terrain and the chance to don the polka dot mountains jersey for a few days may tease out a bigger group than normal. There should be some long-range attacks on the steeper gradients inside the last 70km before a decisive group gets clear. The terrain isn’t tough enough for general classification contenders to make a difference so they should mark each other out allowing some non-GC men to play for the win, most likely in a small group sprint.

Stage 1 Contenders

Tadej Pogačar (5/2; 3.50) won the Giro in May with plenty in hand and is looking for the first Giro-Tour double since Marco Pantani in 1998. Said he learnt how to be more patient in the Giro and the sense is he won’t attack the Grand Départ quite like he did 12 months ago. On the flip side, he’ll want to test Jonas Vingegaard’s level as early as possible but may leave that until the first mountain stage on Tuesday. Hasn’t raced since the Giro and recently had a bout of Covid-light so there are enough reasons to oppose the short-priced favourite for stage 1.

Wout van Aert (8/1; 9.0) made his comeback at the Tour of Norway last month after an awful crash at Dwars door Vlaanderen back in March and has said himself that he’s never started the Tour de France in such poor form. Never a good idea to believe everything a cyclist says but best avoided here until we see if that’s true.  

Alberto Bettiol (16/1; 17.0) won the Italian nationals in Florence last week so will wear the famous tricolore jersey. The Tuscan native will be trying everything to win on home roads on Saturday. Has a sprint if needed but is the parcours a tad too tough? EF Education EasyPost teammate Ben Healy (40/1; 41.0) muscled his way to an impressive win at the Tour of Slovenia a couple of weeks ago. Probably has to win solo.

Primož Roglič (16/1; 17.0) just about won the Critérium du Dauphiné earlier in the month after a mini-crisis on the final stage saw Matteo Jorgenson close to within 8secs. But he showed enough to suggest that the form that’s been lacking since his move to (now) Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe is building nicely. Twice showed impressive speed on the line for stage wins at the Dauphiné – if it does come down to a GC battle then Roglič has a big chance of ending the day in yellow.

Mathieu van der Poel (22/1; 23.0) is here as a deluxe leadout for Jasper Philipsen but will take his own chances where he can. Hasn’t raced since his ridiculous spring campaign where he won both the Ronde van Vlaaderen and Paris-Roubaix and looks more suited to Sunday’s stage which has a short double-digit climb inside the final 20km.

Remco Evenepoel (22/1; 23.0) was one of many that got sick at the Dauphiné and, despite winning the time trial, struggled in the mountains. Given he’s probably a step below Pogačar and Vingegaard as a three-week racer, may be inclined to go hard in the opening block of stages to grab some glory.

Tom Pidcock (22/1; 23.0) didn’t come out particularly well from the second season of ‘Unchained’ on Netflix and appears to have re-examined his GC ambitions this time round. Took back-to-back Mountain Bike World Cup wins last week in preparation for his Olympic gold defence and has stated his aim is to ride aggressively for stage wins – that starts this weekend.   

Magnus Cort (25/1; 26.0) took stage victory on a lumpy day at the Dauphiné so the form is there. Will probably add to his nine Grand Tour stage wins at some point, but more likely on a breakaway day.

Maxim Van Gils (25/1; 26.0) said the opening weekend stages are ones that suit him the best. Another who’s been a bit sick but an excellent punchy climber with a fast finish.

Pello Bilbao (50/1; 51.0) impressed at the Tour of Slovenia a couple of weeks ago with a stage win and second overall. May be marked as a GC threat should he attack which reduces his chances of winning. Is a great descender and has a fast finish which can also be said of Matej Mohorič (80/1; 81.0) who was good without being stellar alongside Bilbao in Slovenia. Both took emotional wins for Bahrain Victorious at last year’s Tour following the tragic death of Gino Mäder.

Michael Matthews (66/1; 67.0) had some great form in the spring and missed out by a whisker on his first monument in Milano-Sanremo. Will need to have his best climbing legs firmly installed to go close here.

Alex Aranburu (66/1; 67.0) rarely wins … until the last couple of weeks when he bagged a stage in the Belgium Tour and the Spanish national title. Climbs well with a sprint.

Paul Lapeira (100/1; 101.0) won the French nationals last week and won in the Basque Country back in April. Is a punchy rather than pure climber and is rapid in a finish. Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale just can’t stop winning and the price looks big.

Triple-figure Tempters

Toms Skujiņš (200/1; 201.0) will mainly be helping Ciccone and Pedersen but may be given his own card to play too. Been a bit quiet since his second at Strade Bianche earlier in the season and didn’t finish the Dauphiné but will be one to keep an eye on.

Dorian Godon (250/1; 251.0) won two tough stages of the Tour de Romandie in April. Climbs well for a big lad and is fast on the line. There is some 500/1 still available but his price is collapsing so if you want a small interest, get on now!

Bruno Armirail (500/1; 501.0) came within 200m of winning a stage at the Dauphiné before Cort’s mighty ‘tash emerged through the fog. Recently reclaimed the French national TT jersey. Would probably have to win solo.

Stage 1 Bets

Never has stage 1 of the Tour de France looked so open with countless riders and rider-types in with a shout of taking the first yellow jersey.

On balance though, assuming it doesn’t kick off amongst the GC men, we must side with good, punchy climbers with attacking instincts who have solid recent form and possess a fast finish in case it’s needed. Enjoy!

Alberto Bettiol 1pt win @14/1

Maxim Van Gils 1pt each way @22/1 (4 places) – 5th

Paul Lapeira 0.5pts each way @100/1 (4 places)

Posted 16.03 BST Fri 28th June 2024

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 1 Result

1st Romain Bardet (150/1)

2nd Frank van den Broek (300/1)

3rd Wout van Aert (8/1)

4th Tadej Pogačar (5/2F)

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]